TED 2012: Batteries - Think Big and Think Cheap

Computers follow Moore's Law - the power of computing will approximately double every 18 months.  A variety of other fields which are primarily information-based are jumping on that same curve.  That's what happened in genetics, for instance.  It's basically an information-based science, so it's now careening along that curve.  Most sciences have gone that way.  Except for batteries. Batteries haven't improved much at all.

Yet, batteries are critical to the exploitation of intermittent energy from renewable sources.  And until we can integrate giant battery storage sinks into our electrical grid, we will be trapped into building transmission systems for peak capacity.

Donald Sadoway thinks he has a breakthrough that will solve these issues.  It involves a low cost battery which is operated at high levels of heat, using magnesium and antimony separated by molten salt.  It's a dirt cheap design.  The energy generated by the battery is enough to maintain heat for its operation.  A couple of his students have formed a company which has attracted investment from Bill Gates and expects to bring a product to market in a couple of years.

This could be a huge breakthrough in the energy field - exciting stuff.  And it goes completely against the traditional wisdom in batteries that you can't let a battery get hot; on the contrary, this battery depends on being hot to operate.

There were some interesting aspects of this talk, from a presentation point of view, some good and some bad.

• TED is known for its whizz-bang presentations (and it's getting to be ever more produced, but more about that later).  Sadoway was refreshing in his highly effective use of that old-fashioned device, the blackboard.  Bravo!
• Although the majority of TED attendees are American, the conference attracts people from many countries and strives for a world view.  Sadoway was notable for presenting this as an American problem (hmm, does the rest of the world not need to solve energy issues?) that would be solved by American ingenuity (are there no scientists outside America?). 
• It was also one of the most arrogant talks I've heard at TED, chock full of first person pronouns.

 Having said that, if Sadoway and Gates are right in believing in this invention, it is very good news indeed.

My Favourite TED talks

In my course on Innovation, I use various TED videos as thought-provokers on different topics.  Those  deliver powerful lessons, and it's also a nice break from hearing me talk for three and a half hours straight.

I urge them to acquire the habit of watching TED videos that are not about business or their own industry.  Those are the talks that will be most mind-expanding for this extremely focused group who are being immersed in a program of disciplined business study.  One of the students this year asked me for a list of my all-time favourite TED talks.  That's a tough question, but it got me thinking.  I decided to try for a Top Ten list.  I'll cover five talks in this post and five more in a subsequent post.

Hans Rosling

This brilliant Swedish academic could have quietly taught global health cloistered at the Karolinska Institutet in Stocklhom.  He would have wowed his students and he would have been in demand as a dinner guest.  But TED changed all that.  He gave his first TED talk in 2006 and electrified the conference.  His talk fused long-term global health trends, amazing dynamic data presentation techniques, incredible energy, and great wit.

"See this corner?  Watch per capita incomes rising!  And over here, watch world health improving at the same time!  There goes Asia taking off!"  It has all the panache of a sports announcer shouting "He shoots!  He scores!"  But it's not all performance art.  He has a substantive and encouraging message about the world's progress toward better quality of life; what could have been boring statistics illuminates those underlying and connected trends.

TED.com has brought this man with his big ideas to the world.  Rosling's  talks are the most viewed of all TED.com talks.  He looks totally spontaneous but he is the most diligent in preparation, according to Nancy Duarte who coaches many of the TED speakers.  I chose Rosling's first TED talk in 2006 as my favourite here. It was my first TED conference and I spent the whole conference reeling with euphoria, with Rosling being a huge contributor.  However, I've watched many of his other talks since, from various TEDs and TEDx's; I could watch him forever and I would recommend you watch any and all of his talks.

Bill Gates

Bill Gates gets a mention here for a different reason than Rosling.  One couldn't claim that he's exactly charismatic, although he's developed a certain charm and warmth as a speaker now that he's a philanthropist rather than a business person.  I wrote in a previous post about Bill Gates' TED Talk on Innovating to Zero, a well-reasoned plea for getting carbon emissions to zero.  It was perhaps the best organized and persuasive presentation I'd ever seen.  He laid out the arguments clearly as to why we should care about climate, and why, when you examine all the alternatives, 'safe' nuclear energy is the only way to go.  Then he unveils such a new technology for safe nuclear energy (while transparently admitted it was developed by long-time friend and Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen's company).

 Derek Sivers
This is a short talk, less than three minutes.  But what a powerful message Sivers packs into that short time.

One of my firm convictions is that a prerequisite to great innovation is to be able to let go of what you know.  In this talk Sivers brilliantly exposes how we can get locked into one way of thinking, with a great story comparing address conventions in Japan and the US. 

William McDonough

William McDonough's talk wowed me at my first TED conference with 'his manifesto for the transformation of human industry through ecologically intelligent design'  (his words on the Cradle to Cradle website. 

McDonough believes that when you manufacture something, you should know the characteristics of all ingredients and components and ensure that these are environmentally benign.  Moreover, you must ensure that the waste product, as well as your actual product must be environmentally benign.  And you should build products that can come back into the system to be used again.

Isabel Allende

Why is Isabel Allende's talk on my favourites list?   Because she was vibrant, inspiring, and funny.  She was totally feminine and totally feminist. 

When invited to carry the flag at the Opening Ceremonies of the Turin Winter Olympics, Allende's first concern was what she'd have to wear.  Her second concern was how she'd be dwarfed by the statuesque and gorgeous Sophia Loren.  How totally feminine! 

Her feminism was even more strongly represented.  She fervently disagreed with the thesis that feminism is passé.  Firstly, women and children still suffer incredible hardships and mistreatment.  The world needs to address these disadvantages.  Secondly, Allende believes that helping women helps the world.  This theme is often echoed in such movements as the microfinance movement.  Lend to men, they say, and the men improve their lives.  Lend to women and the whole family thrives. 

Allende is, after all, a well-known and prolific writer.  So it's not surprising that her talk centred around stories and was titled Tales of Passion. 

The Nuclear Conundrum

Some time ago, I wrote a post  about Bill Gates' talk at TED 2010 -  probably the very best organized talk I've ever heard.   Gates blew me away with his clarity and coherence as he took us through his analysis of the climate change problem.  Basically, he said, 'If climate change is the question, then nuclear is the answer'.

Gates outlined the argument that to attack global poverty, you had to attack climate change, because it was the poor who would suffer the most from climate change.  And if you eliminate all the ways that cannot solve climate change, you're left with nuclear power as the only option.   Of course, this option is anathema to environmentalists, but as Sherlock Holmes put it,“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”   One could rephrase that as "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the answer."

In that talk, Gates introduced a new type of nuclear reactor which uses spent uranium (helping clean up the existing nuclear waste mess) and runs buried underground for 20 years at a time without the need to refuel or remove waste (the activities that introduce immense risk in current nuclear plants).  The technology was developed at TerraPower, a company led by Nathan Myrvold, former chief scientist at Microsoft.

Well, I recently read an article on cbc.ca telling of Gates' visit to China, where he had discussions about introducing this technology there.  Pretty interesting, I thought.  If there's a place that is likely to tip the planet over the climate change abyss, it's developing China.  Wouldn't it be nice if this technology delivers on its promise and China doesn't fuel its growth by building more dirty coal plants?

There's another interesting perspective on this visit in the Washington Post, lamenting that Gates had to go abroad to try to sell this revolutionary idea because the US has become a hostile environment to introducing such revolutionary technology.   As a person who follows innovation, and writings about innovation, pretty closely, that article is part of a chorus of voices disturbed over the US' loss of innovative leadership in the world.

Nixon's visit to China is considered to be pivotal in global affairs; Gates' visit could be even more significant for the planet.

Salman Khan: Turning Education Upside Down

How about getting your Math lecture at home, and doing your homework at school?  That revolutionary idea is now a realistic possibility, because of Salman Khan's Khan Academy.

The Khan Academy is home to over 2000 instructional videos recorded by ever-so-engaging Khan.  It all started with Khan tutoring his cousins in person.  When he decided to record his tutorials and put them up on YouTube for convenience, he discovered that his cousins liked Khan on YouTube better than Khan in person.  They could proceed at their own pace, and didn't feel embarrassed at not understanding things. Even more surprising, others found the videos and they went viral. 

Khan decided to leave his job at a hedge fund, and dedicate himself full time to developing these educational materials.  The videos went from being an individual instructional tool to something with the potential to revolutionize education when the school district in Los Altos decided to explore if they could use the videos to improve math instruction in their school by using Khan Academy in half their classes in Grade Five to Seven.  And this is how they reversed the process.  The students watch the videos at home, instead of listening to the teacher lecture at school.  Each student proceeds at their own pace, never proceeding to the next type of problem until they get ten right answers.  Then they come to school to do their 'homework' with the teacher.  The teacher has a dashboard to see where every student is in the process and where they're getting stuck, so the teacher can deliver personalized instruction exactly where the student needs it.

Education is one of the priority investment categories of the Gates Foundation, and they have provided support to the Khan Academy.  Gates was beaming at the enthusiastic (FSOWSS) received by Khan.

While I enjoyed the talk, it was bittersweet for me, since I had put so much effort into reaching him to invite him to TEDxIBYork.  Sigh.

Bill Gates - Curator Extraordinaire

The TED team is always looking for ways to make the TED experience richer and more interesting.  This year they invited Bill Gates to be curator and host.  He was a superlative curator, the only session so far where every speaker has received a standing ovation.  He was also a delightfully informal and engaging host.

I was particularly fortunate to be sitting on the stage for this session with other TEDx organizers, and it was a real thrill to feel part of the Main Stage experience.

There were 4 speakers:

• David Christian with a fascinating professorial lecture on the history of the world in 18 minutes.  80%SO
• Amina Az-Zubair from Nigeria describing that country’s progress toward achieving the Millenium Development Goals, and improving democracy and decreasing corruption along the way.  FSO
• Bruce Aylward’s impassioned plea to keep up the fight to eliminate polio.  FSO.
• Salman Khan describing the Khan Academy phenomenon, which just might revolutionize education.  SOWSS
• Gates himself was a gracious and articulate host and asked great questions of each speaker. FSO

 I’ll describe each of these talks in more detail in future posts.

And I’m sure you’re curious about my rating scheme for the talks.  Here’s how to read the ratings:

• FSO - Full Standing Ovation by everyone in the audience
• X% SO - my entirely crude estimate of the percentage of the audience participating in the Standing O
• SOWSS - Standing O with Sustained Shouting.  There had to be a category to capture those receptions that go well beyond a Full Standing O.

Innovate to Zero - an energy imperative

The necessity for carbon-free energy
Bill Gates' incisive talk on energy was one of my favourites this year. His acute analysis went step by step through his thinking with startling clarity. (In fact, if you want a template for a perfectly formed presentation, you could do worse than use this model.)

The Gates Foundation is working on vaccines and seeds. But climate is more important to the very poor than anything else. And the price of energy is critical to them too. In order to arrest climate change,we need to do more than just reduce carbon - we have to Innovate to Zero, from the current 26B tons of carbon/year (of which the US is responsible for 20B tons).

Carbon math is inescapable

Carbon = Population x Services/person x Energy/service x Carbon/unit of energy

Gates dryly pointed out the simple mathematical fact - if you want carbon to go to zero, then one of the terms of this equation has to go to zero. We can take the terms one at a time. Population is going to rise to 9B before leveling off. Services per person are rising as huge numbers reach for the middle class. Efficiency can drive down Energy per service, but realistically, not to zero. That leaves Carbon/unit of energy as the only factor that can be driven to zero. That requires a miracle. And we need to achieve that miracle by 2050.

Next, Gates identified five candidates for that miracle:

• carbon capture and storage
  
• nuclear
  
• wind
  
• solar photovoltaic
  
• solar thermal.
  

Each approach has unsolved problems and concerns, and would take major breakthroughs to deliver the miracle. We need thousands of people working on all these challenges and he exhorted that work to begin.

The potential of nuclear
Gates pointed to nuclear as a strong contender in this race. The current technology in nuclear power plants dates back to the 1950s and uses rare enriched uranium. Furthermore, the process is quite inefficient and produces a lot of waste, without a sound plan for its disposal.

Gates disclosed that he is backing an initiative out of Intellectual Ventures, run by his friend and former CTO of Microsoft, Nathan Myrvold. Terrapower's uses U25 (i.e. spent uranium that is now considered nuclear waster) as fuel, rather than U28. It has the potential to use all that nuclear waste we now worry about so much. Even better, the process takes place in a sealed reactor in the ground, which you fill once every 60 years, eliminating the risks of accidents associated with refuelling. This approach has the potential to meet the deadline, through 20 years in development and 20 years for wide deployment. (Gosh, as much as I admired Gates' analysis, I wouldn't go so far as to put him in charge of a deadline!!)

The Gates talk is one of the first to go up on TED.com here. It's well worth watching.

Other TED talks on nuclear
Nuclear wove its way through a couple of other TED talks. Stewart Brand, an early environmentalist and creator of the Whole Earth Catalog has come to the conclusion that nuclear is the only answer. The risks of nuclear are less than the risks of climate change. And TerraPower's approach reduces those risks further. He outlines his reasoning in his new book Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto. He participated in a debate about nuclear power against Mark Jacobson, a Stanford civil and environmental engineer, whose most persuasive argument against nuclear power was that it couldn't come online fast enough to make a difference, mostly because of regulatory delays. That's the 20 years Gates allows for deployment after development has proven the concept.

And of course one couldn't help but link the Countdown to Zero movie (described in an earlier post) with Innovation to Zero. Using nuclear power creates a market for the uranium in all those weapons that should be dismantled).

Rebooting - Gates at TED2009

Another talk from yesterday worth checking out was Bill Gates' talk on the work of his Foundation. He gracefully handled the fact that he was in the Rebooting section, attributing it to the rebooting of his career, now full time at the Foundation. The first of his annual letters is now available at gatesfoundation.org and is worth reading for its thoughtful discussion of significant problems, why they picked the ones they did to work on and progress.

At TED, he talked about two of those priorities, fighting malaria, and improving American schools. That talk is already up at ted.com. You'll love the question period, when Chris Anderson pulls over his computer to read off some questions sent in from the Web and is oblivious to the fact that he's just set the glowing Apple in the foreground of the rest of their discussion! The audience chuckles you hear is because the audience was fully aware of the irony!