Fertility Rates

We all know that fertility rates have dropped in the developed world to the replacement fertility rate (2.1 children per woman) or less.  A mind-blowing animated infographic from The Economist shows just how dramatically fertility rates have fallen in Asia.   (The Economist calls this a gentle decline, but I find it more dramatic than that). From a fertility rate of 5.8 in 1980, Asia will hit the magic 2.1 in 2014, bringing the population to equilibrium, a pattern mirrored almost exactly in Latin America.

The drop in fertility is more widespread than just in China where the one-child policy has obviously caused their fertility rate to plunge.Bangladesh's fertility rate, for instance, went from 6.9 to 2.9 in just 30 years from 1970, while Iran's dropped from 6.5 in 1980 to 1.9 in 2005.  The World Fact Book published by the CIA shows under half the countries in the world with a fertility rate above 2.1, but those rates are also expected to fall where economic security and women's rights and education increase. The UN predicts that world population will peak at 9.22B in 2075 and then drop slightly to stabilize at just under 9B in 2300.

But you should just go and look at this wonderful infographic.  The Economist has taken a page from Hans Rosling's book - take some dry numbers and show the trends by animating them.  Wonderful.

Babies and Religion

Rosling with high-tech visual aids

For a variety of reasons, this blog has veered away from its origins - reflecting on the talks that have excited or inspired me at TED.  Usually it was a TED talk I've heard in person.  I'm getting back to the original purpose with this post, but this time, I'm writing about a talk I just watched online.

Hans Rosling is the most-invited and most-watched TED speaker of all time.  His most recent talk was at the TEDx Congress in Doha.  Sadly, Rosling has run out of original and thought-provoking things to talk about.  NOT!!!  Absolutely not.  Once again, Rosling sparkled with his trademark presentation of data that makes you think.

This time, he tackled a sensitive topic: the correlation between birth rate and religion.  Most people 'know' that birth rates differ between religions.  If it is true that some religions discourage the global trend toward smaller families, then that will send our population soaring past 10B.

Rosling argues differently with his data.  Worldwide, birth rates have been dropping toward the two-children-per-woman mark.  There is a correlation between birth rates and average income: low income tends to correlate with high birth rates, although it is clear the birth rate can drop even when average income has stagnated.  Countries in conflict have high birth rates, as children killed are usually replaced with another child.  But, the countries which  still have high birth rates are split between countries where the dominant religion is Christianity and those where the dominant religion is Islam.  Rosling argues that if we want to look for the factors that affect birth rate, we have to look beyond religion.

Rosling posits the four key factors necessary to bring down the birth rate:

1. Children survive
2. Families don't depend on children working 
3. Women get educated and join the labour force
4. Family planning is accessible

With his patented use of simple props to make his point vividly, Rosling shows how, even with the decline to 2 children per woman, the world population will rise to 10B before leveling off.  He calls it reaching 'peak child', a phrase that may become as popular as 'peak oil'.

I could listen to Rosling forever!  He presents data through a powerful lens, which turns it into information. Over the years of listening to his talks, he's assailed many assumptions I've had about the world.  I can't imagine how exciting it must be to take a whole course from this spectacular teacher.

My Favourite TED talks

In my course on Innovation, I use various TED videos as thought-provokers on different topics.  Those  deliver powerful lessons, and it's also a nice break from hearing me talk for three and a half hours straight.

I urge them to acquire the habit of watching TED videos that are not about business or their own industry.  Those are the talks that will be most mind-expanding for this extremely focused group who are being immersed in a program of disciplined business study.  One of the students this year asked me for a list of my all-time favourite TED talks.  That's a tough question, but it got me thinking.  I decided to try for a Top Ten list.  I'll cover five talks in this post and five more in a subsequent post.

Hans Rosling

This brilliant Swedish academic could have quietly taught global health cloistered at the Karolinska Institutet in Stocklhom.  He would have wowed his students and he would have been in demand as a dinner guest.  But TED changed all that.  He gave his first TED talk in 2006 and electrified the conference.  His talk fused long-term global health trends, amazing dynamic data presentation techniques, incredible energy, and great wit.

"See this corner?  Watch per capita incomes rising!  And over here, watch world health improving at the same time!  There goes Asia taking off!"  It has all the panache of a sports announcer shouting "He shoots!  He scores!"  But it's not all performance art.  He has a substantive and encouraging message about the world's progress toward better quality of life; what could have been boring statistics illuminates those underlying and connected trends.

TED.com has brought this man with his big ideas to the world.  Rosling's  talks are the most viewed of all TED.com talks.  He looks totally spontaneous but he is the most diligent in preparation, according to Nancy Duarte who coaches many of the TED speakers.  I chose Rosling's first TED talk in 2006 as my favourite here. It was my first TED conference and I spent the whole conference reeling with euphoria, with Rosling being a huge contributor.  However, I've watched many of his other talks since, from various TEDs and TEDx's; I could watch him forever and I would recommend you watch any and all of his talks.

Bill Gates

Bill Gates gets a mention here for a different reason than Rosling.  One couldn't claim that he's exactly charismatic, although he's developed a certain charm and warmth as a speaker now that he's a philanthropist rather than a business person.  I wrote in a previous post about Bill Gates' TED Talk on Innovating to Zero, a well-reasoned plea for getting carbon emissions to zero.  It was perhaps the best organized and persuasive presentation I'd ever seen.  He laid out the arguments clearly as to why we should care about climate, and why, when you examine all the alternatives, 'safe' nuclear energy is the only way to go.  Then he unveils such a new technology for safe nuclear energy (while transparently admitted it was developed by long-time friend and Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen's company).

 Derek Sivers
This is a short talk, less than three minutes.  But what a powerful message Sivers packs into that short time.

One of my firm convictions is that a prerequisite to great innovation is to be able to let go of what you know.  In this talk Sivers brilliantly exposes how we can get locked into one way of thinking, with a great story comparing address conventions in Japan and the US. 

William McDonough

William McDonough's talk wowed me at my first TED conference with 'his manifesto for the transformation of human industry through ecologically intelligent design'  (his words on the Cradle to Cradle website. 

McDonough believes that when you manufacture something, you should know the characteristics of all ingredients and components and ensure that these are environmentally benign.  Moreover, you must ensure that the waste product, as well as your actual product must be environmentally benign.  And you should build products that can come back into the system to be used again.

Isabel Allende

Why is Isabel Allende's talk on my favourites list?   Because she was vibrant, inspiring, and funny.  She was totally feminine and totally feminist. 

When invited to carry the flag at the Opening Ceremonies of the Turin Winter Olympics, Allende's first concern was what she'd have to wear.  Her second concern was how she'd be dwarfed by the statuesque and gorgeous Sophia Loren.  How totally feminine! 

Her feminism was even more strongly represented.  She fervently disagreed with the thesis that feminism is passé.  Firstly, women and children still suffer incredible hardships and mistreatment.  The world needs to address these disadvantages.  Secondly, Allende believes that helping women helps the world.  This theme is often echoed in such movements as the microfinance movement.  Lend to men, they say, and the men improve their lives.  Lend to women and the whole family thrives. 

Allende is, after all, a well-known and prolific writer.  So it's not surprising that her talk centred around stories and was titled Tales of Passion. 

More on Data from TED 2009

It wasn't only Berners-Lee that was talking about data at TED this year. Hans Rosling (seen here on a stepladder getting up close and personal with his data) treated us to some HIV stats that he presented in his own inimitable way. You can see this, and other, data come alive on his site gapminder.org. It shows the power of presentation for helping understanding what the data is showing.

JoAnn Kuchera Morin presented another way of making data come alive data in the Allosphere at University of California Santa Barbara. The Allosphere allows you to visualize, hear, and explore data by standing inside an enormous sphere (3 storeys in diameter), built by a team whose skills cross the boundaries of arts and science. Up to 20 researchers can stand on a bridge and be immersed in this enormous, rich multimedia environment. One experiment allowed researchers to feel as if they were travelling inside the brain during an actual fMRI (a functional MRI) that tracks in real time what parts of he brain are activated during different stimuli. Other experiments 'traveled' into smaller spaces, like lattices of atoms, right down to a single hydrogen atom.

Tommy McCall and his amazing information graphics

TED hasn't even started and already I've had brain food. I rode down from the LA Airport in the shuttle with Tommy McCall, a globe-trotting information graphics designer who specializes in bringing what might be dull graphics to life in newspapers and magazines. You can see some of his portfolio here. http://tommymccall.org/Portfolio/Portfolio

His work on the TED program guide earned him a ticket to TED. Tommy is s one of a new generation of TEDster - someone who has come to know and love TED through the web site that lets people enjoyg TED speakers for free at TED.com! He particularly loves Hans Rosling for his absoluting amazing graphics that illustrate trends in world poverty. Who doesn't? He's one of my favourites too. Catch him at
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/hans_rosling_reveals_new_insights_on_poverty.html

Tommy also talked to me about an Op Ed piece he wrote for the New York Times in October. He calculated the return on investment you would make on $10,000 if you invested only during Republican presidencies since Hoover, or only in Democratic presidencies since Hoover. Each represents 40 years of investing. I guessed pretty bang on for the amount you'd have during Democratic incumbencies - $300,000 (well, $300,671 to be exact), but I miserably overestimated what you'd have under the Republicans - a puny $11,733. That still only rises to $51,211 if you remove Hoover's depression years. I knew the difference was enormous, but not that enormous!